As much as Russia should not invade, I don’t think anyone can assume Putin is that pragmatic about this. He’s ex-KGB; I don’t think economic threats scare him (even if they prove to be effective in the future).
Can this be the moment when Putin overreaches himself and loses power? Will this actually turn out to be good for Russia and the world? We can only hope for the best.
Even a week ago, the idea of a Russian military intervention in Ukraine seemed far-fetched if not totally alarmist. The risks involved were just too enormous for President Vladimir Putin and for the country he has ruled for 14 years. But the arrival of Russian troops in Crimea over the weekend has shown that he is not averse to reckless adventures, even ones that offer little gain. In the coming days and weeks, Putin will have to decide how far he is prepared to take this intervention and how much he is prepared to suffer for it. It is already clear, however, that he cannot emerge as the winner of this conflict, at least not when the damage is weighed against the gains. It will at best be a Pyrrhic victory, and at worst an utter catastrophe. Here’s why:
At home, this intervention looks to be one of the most…
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